Authors: Gergely Koban (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Lulu Zhao (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Igor Sokolov (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Nikolett Biro (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Sailee Sawant (University of Alabama in Huntsville), Weihao Liu (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Alex Shane (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Claudio Corti (NASA CCMC), Tamas Gombosi (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Nishtha Sachdeva (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor), Mary Aronne (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, M2M office), Elizabeth Juelfs (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, M2M office), Kathryn Whitman (NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group) , M. Leila Mays (NASA CCMC), Michelangelo Romano (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, M2M office), Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, M2M office)

Reliable real-time forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation hazards is critical for future human and robotic exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. To support this need, we developed and implemented a fully automated forecasting pipeline built around the Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) framework at the University of Michigan.

The SOFIE framework combines multiple physics-based models to describe the coupled evolution of the ambient solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and energetic particles. The background solar wind and CME propagation are simulated with the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model–Realtime (AWSoM-R), a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model that includes Alfvén wave–driven coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. CME initiation is represented by inserting a Gibson–Low (GL) flux rope at the identified solar source region using the Eruptive Event Generator (EEG-GL). The solar source region is identified by a Region-of-Interest algorithm. The associated SEP acceleration and transport are then modeled using the Multiple Field Line Particle Advection Model for Particle Acceleration (M-FLAMPA) together with Monte Carlo Integration of Turbulent Transport and ENergization of SEPs (MITTENS).

In this configuration, the heliospheric solar wind solution is updated every hour by using hourly National Solar Observatory’s Global Oscillation Network Group (NSO/GONG) photospheric magnetic field observations. Following the detection of a CME (from the CCMC DONKI CME Database), the system automatically branches from the ambient solar wind run and initiates a coupled CME–SEP simulation. This enables forecasts of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival and the time-dependent SEP proton flux profiles at operationally relevant energies within 6 hours of simulation time. The pipeline requires no manual intervention, and its forecast products, including heliospheric solar wind conditions, ICME arrival estimates, and SEP proton fluxes, are made available through the website.

The pipeline’s readiness and robustness were tested during the ARTEMIS-II mission. This demonstration highlights SOFIE’s potential as an automated, physics-based tool for supporting real-time space weather forecasting for exploration activities.