Advancing Solar Flare Forecasting with Early Signature Detection

Authors: Juan Camilo Buitrago-Casas (SSL - UCB), Marianne Peterson (UMN), Juliana Vievering (APL), P.S. Athiray, Phillip Chamberlin, Lindsay Glesener, Säm Krucker, Andrea Lopez, Courtney Peck, Katharine K. Reeves, Sabrina Savage, Brent Smith, Amy Winebarger

Predicting the occurrence of extreme solar flares and eruptive events remains a critical challenge for the heliophysics community, with significant implications for both fundamental science and space weather forecasting. Traditional flare prediction methods are typically divided into two categories: (1) long-term probabilistic forecasts, which estimate the likelihood of flares over extended periods (e.g., the next 24 hours), and (2) flare alerts, which notify when the GOES X-ray flux exceeds a certain threshold. However, there is a growing demand for predictions that are both more immediate and actionable, providing early warnings of extreme events.

To meet this need, we introduce a novel approach for real-time solar flare detection that leverages early flare signatures. This tool aggregates near-real-time measurements of high-energy emissions from the initial phases of flares, offering crucial insights into event initiation and the dynamics of energy transfer into accelerated particles and hot plasma. By providing early predictions of flare magnitude and duration, this method aims to deliver essential warnings minutes before the arrival of harmful radiation in near-Earth space. This capability is vital for enabling timely triggered observations of scientifically significant events and advancing our understanding of early flare physics.

In this presentation, we share preliminary analyses of these early flare signatures, evaluating their predictive value and potential application in real-time solar flare detection. Our findings suggest that this approach could significantly enhance our ability to forecast solar flares, offering a valuable tool for both operational and research purposes within the heliophysics community.