Global simulation of the solar wind validated with Ulysses measurements

Authors: cChin-Chun Wu (US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington D. C., USA), Kan Liou (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland, USA), Brian E. Wood (US Naval Research Laboratory, Washington D. C., USA)

Accurate reconstruction of the solar wind plays an important role in the study of the heliosphere and space weather prediction. In this study, we perform a global simulation of the long-term solar wind evolution within 7 AU from 1994 to 2009 using G3DMHD, which is a data-driven, time-dependent, global three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulation model. The G3DMHD model starts at 18 solar radii and is driven by the solar synoptic maps, a refined version of the Wang-Sheeley model, and a set of conservation laws. To validate the model performance, the simulation result is compared with the hourly solar wind plasma and field data acquired by the Ulysses spacecraft in terms of several metrics: the yearly correlation coefficient (cc), mean squared prediction error (MSPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). It is found that the strength of the solar wind magnetic field is normally underestimated during the solar minimum period, and overestimated during the solar maximum period. We will present a detailed comparison and discuss possible causes of the discrepancy. * Work of NRL are supported partially by Office of Naval Research and NASA grant.