Authors: Dinesha Hegde (University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH)), Tae Kim (UAH), Nikolai Pogorelov (UAH), Shaela Jones (Catholic University of America & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ), Nick Arge (NASA GSFC)

The solar wind (SW) is a crucial element of space weather, providing the background against which solar transients, such as coronal mass ejections and energetic particles, travel toward Earth. Accurate modeling of space weather events necessitates a detailed characterization of the ambient SW. Nevertheless, uncertainties in observations and models influence even the most advanced data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the SW. Consequently, quantifying these uncertainties is essential for enhancing the precision of global SW models. In this study, we execute a series of simulations of the global 3D heliospheric SW using an empirically data-driven MHD model developed as part of the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS). We compare our inner heliospheric MHD simulations with data from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Solar Orbiter (SolO), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A), Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Wind missions along their trajectories. We perform a quantitative analysis to assess the model’s ability to replicate solar wind observations and examine how the quantified uncertainties, determined through an ensemble modeling approach, propagate throughout the heliospheric domain and vary across different models. Such multi-spacecraft validations enhance our understanding of SW propagation and refine our data-driven MHD model for improved space weather forecasting.