Authors: Connor OBrien (Boston University), Brian Walsh (Boston University), Ying Zou (JHUAPL), Samira Tasnim (Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics DRL), Huaming Zhang (University of Alabama in Huntsville), David Sibeck (NASA GSFC)

PRIME (Probabilistic Regressor for Input to the Magnetosphere Estimation) is a novel solar wind propagation algorithm that uses solar wind time history from L1 to predict near-Earth solar wind with uncertainties. PRIME’s predictions statistically better match spacecraft measurements just upstream of the bow shock than existing techniques, up to a factor of three for some parameters. Additionally, case studies of particularly difficult to predict or extreme conditions are presented to demonstrate the physicality of PRIME’s outputs and its performance improvements over existing techniques.