In 2022, SEP modelers are being asked to model time periods with strong flares and accompanying CMEs that were NOT followed by an SEP event at Earth (see Session 9. https://helioshine.org/shine-2022-sessions/).
Alternatively, computationally-intensive models that produce 2D or 3D output may elect to provide predictions for a smaller set of events at the location of Earth, STEREO A, and STEREO B. Nearly all of the selected events are previous SHINE challenge events.
A complete description of the validation effort since 2018 and supporting materials are available at https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep/. Supporting materials for the SHINE 2022 non-events can be found on this page. They will eventually be transitioned to the CCMC website.
How to Submit Forecasts
SEP modelers are asked to produce predictions for both the Challenge SEP Events and the Challenge SEP NON-Events and send them to Katie Whitman (Kathryn.whitman@nasa.gov). She will use the predictions to produce a validation report containing metrics and plots assessing each model’s performance. You may submit predictions for any number of events – one up to all!
Preferred formats:
- SEP Scoreboard JSON file (required format for the validation code)
- SEP flux time profile with YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS in the first column and fluxes in the remaining columns. Please indicate associated energy bins.
Other formats: Send output in any format available and Katie will do her best to convert your files into the SEP Scoreboard JSON format.
Preferred energy bins:
- GOES integral channels (>10, >100, additionally >30, >50, >60, >500 MeV)
- SOHO/EPHIN (energy bins HERE on p. 22)
SHINE Challenge Non-SEP Events at Earth
Below (in linked google sheets), we have provided forecast quality CME parameters. It is not required that modelers use these parameters, however, if you used the forecast quality parameters provided in the previous SHINE challenges, it would be preferential to use these as well.
We are working on providing the CME parameters in the format required as input by ENLIL. A zip file of all the CME parameter files will be made available here. There may be existing ENLIL simulations for these CMEs which can be accessed by following the link to the DONKI page provided in the google spreadsheet.
Flare Information
Visit flare Google spreadsheet directly: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17dNXQxqXRhzITJu8rzs8davmIb-DN8bl9b5kPr0kfFo/edit?usp=sharing
Associated CME Information
Visit CME Google spreadsheet directly: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15nxD8J-FjjK3qX-HKazGRUZNjzPbhaviKTBOUhhD5kc/edit?usp=sharing
Detailed Images of Each Event
EUV and CME images and proton intensity plots for each eruption are shown here: https://helioshine.org/shine-2022-sep-non-event-periods/
Alternative SHINE 2022 Challenge SEP Events and Non-Events
2D and 3D modelers may opt to produce output for Earth, STEREO A, and STEREO B for the following events (or a subset). Please send SEP Scoreboard JSON files or time profiles at each location. The time profiles must have fine energy resolution so that Katie may interpolate the spectra into appropriate energy bins, or modelers should send time profiles in the following energy bins:
- GOES (>10, >100, additionally >30, >50, >60, >500 MeV) or SOHO/EPHIN (energy bins HERE on p. 22) at Earth
- STEREO A and B (energy bins HERE)
| SEP Date at Earth | Earth Peak | STEREO A Peak | STEREO B Peak |
| 2012-03-07 | 10 | 0.09 | 10 |
| 2012-05-17 | 0.6 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| 2012-07-12 | 0.8 | BG | 0.2 |
| 2012-07-14 | BG | 0.004 | BG |
| 2013-04-11 | 2 | 0.001 | 5 |
| 2014-01-06 | 0.6 | 0.04 | 0.003 |
| 2014-01-07 | 2.2 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| 2017-09-10 | 10 | 1 | N/A |
| 2020-11-29* | ~0.6 | weak event TBA | N/A |
*not in the catalog
Flare, CME, suprathermal seed spectra, and proton information for all of the above events (except 2020-11-29) can be found on the CCMC SHINE Challenge website: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep/#challenge-events
Previous SHINE Challenge SEP Events
Challenge SEP events and all supporting information can be found at https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep/#challenge-events.
March 7, 2012
May 17, 2012
July 12, 2012
April 11, 2013
January 6, 2014
January 7, 2014
July 14, 2017
September 4 and 6, 2017
September 10, 2017