Authors: Kathryn Whitman (NASA JSC SRAG/KBR), Philip R. Quinn (NASA JSC SRAG/Leidos), Ricky Egeland (NASA JSC SRAG), Clayton Allison (NASA JSC SRAG/Leidos), Edward Semones (NASA JSC SRAG), Leila Mays (NASA GSFC), Yaireska Collado-Vega (NASA GSFC)
SPHINX: A gatekeeper that devours all who do not correctly answer her riddle.
The Integrated Solar Energetic Proton Alert/Warning (ISEP) project was established to aid in the transition of SEP models from the research realm to operational use. This project is a collaboration between the NASA Community Coordinated Model Center (CCMC), the NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M) and the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG). Through ISEP, the SEP Scoreboards (Intensity, Probability, and All Clear) were developed to visualize real time forecasts from SEP models for use in SRAG operations. To accomplish this, SRAG, CCMC, and M2M work closely with modelers on model development, CCMC works on Scoreboard implementation, and M2M provides human-in-the-loop space weather analysis and ensures that models run in real time.
Now that the SEP Scoreboards have been established and are running in real time, it is important to understand model performance to inform operators how to best interpret model forecasts. For this reason, the SPHINX validation tool is being developed at SRAG in collaboration with CCMC and M2M. SPHINX builds upon the community efforts carried out through the SHINE SEP model validation challenges in 2018, 2019, and 2022 and work accomplished through the ISWAT H3-01 section.
Solar Particles in the Heliosphere validation INfrastructure for SpWx (SPHINX) is being developed to be a generalized, automated tool with the capability to validate any kind of forecasted quantity from any type of SEP prediction model to inform operations and science. The main steps of SPHINX include:
- Preparation of observations
- Ingestion of forecasts (provided by user or pulled from the SEP Scoreboards)
- Automated matching of forecasts to observations
- Calculation and reporting of metrics
- Interactive analysis of validation results with SPHINX-Web
SEP Scoreboards:
https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/intensity/