Authors: L. A. Fisk (Umich), L. Zhao (Umich), J. R. MacTaggart (Umich), C. A. Ballard (Umich), and S.T. Lepri (Umich)

Observations and analysis of the behavior of the open magnetic field of the Sun, the component of the solar magnetic field that extends into the heliosphere, reveal that a valid model for the solar magnetic field is: (1) The Sun has an inherent, fixed dipole magnetic field resulting from a dynamo in its core, as occurs in gaseous planetary bodies, e.g., Jupiter, with an axis offset from the rotation axis of the Sun by approximately 10^◦, located at Carrington longitude of approximately 30^◦, and is stationary for at least the five cycles studied, Cycles 21 – 25. (2) The Sun has a surface layer of granules and supergranules that is highly magnetically permeable and separates the fixed dipole magnetic field from the open magnetic field. Sunspots and active regions are created in the surface layer by the interaction through reconnection between the open magnetic field and small loops of the fixed dipole magnetic field that are observed to emerge within supergranules. A model of the solar cycle is created that yields: 1) formulae, verified by observations of Cycles 21-25, that connect the open magnetic field at solar minimum to the duration and maximum number of sunspots in the solar activity phase that follows; 2) formulae that connect sequential cycles, and thus from the properties of Cycle 25, forecast Cycle 26.

In Session 8, “The Evolution of Solar Magnetic Open Flux and Its Implications for the Solar Cycle,” on Tuesday morning, Prof. Len Fisk from the University of Michigan will give a scene-setting talk introducing this new model for the solar cycle. We welcome your questions and perspectives. Please join us, ask questions, and take part in the discussion.