Authors: Graham Barnes (NWRA), Marc DeRosa (LMSAL), Shaela Jones (NASA GSFC), Nick Arge (NASA GSFC), Carl Henney (AFRL), Karin Dissauer (NWRA), Mark Cheung (CSIRO)

The topology of the coronal magnetic field plays a key role in determining whether a solar reconnection event will result in an eruption, either by influencing the location of magnetic reconnection, or by determining the access to open magnetic flux that allows an eruption to proceed out into the heliosphere as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  Recent modeling efforts have succeeded in producing eruptions using a variety of onset mechanisms, but the question that remains is which of these actually trigger eruptions on the Sun?  Using SDO/HMI and AIA data and a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, we present a statistical approach to determining whether the presence of certain topological features is favorable to the occurrence of an eruption should a flare occur.  We demonstrate this approach on a limited sample size using signatures of two topological features: open magnetic flux and bald patches as a proxy for the existence of a twisted magnetic flux rope.  In the case of the bald patches, we present a method for determining whether the bald patch is associated with the flare ribbons.  In future work, we plan to incorporate additional topological features and interpret the results in terms of the cause of eruptions, either in the context of the type of reconnection generating the event (e.g., whether coronal null points are most strongly associated with eruptions, as in the breakout model), or in the context of understanding why some flares lead to eruptions but others don’t (e.g., whether access to open magnetic flux facilitates an eruption).

The material presented here is based upon work supported by NASA grants 80NSSC19K0087 and 80NSSC21K0738, and by NSF award 2154653.  Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or the National Science Foundation.