AIA Active Region Patches (AARPs): an ML-ready dataset (and initial forecasting-“related” analysis)

Authors: KD Leka (NWRA and Nagoya University), Karin Dissauer (NWRA), Graham Barnes (NWRA), Eric Wagner (NWRA)

NWRA is releasing a machine-learning-ready dataset of E/UV timeseries images and parametrizations covering most of Solar Cycle 24. We present here the AIA Active-Region Patches (“AARPs”; to be curated and hosted at SDAC) that are constructed from the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly data in coordination with the SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Active Region Patches. Down-selection in the spatial domain is solely from full-disk to active-region size; the native spatial sampling is retained. Down-selection in the temporal domain is more severe (but may be augmented in the future), yet allows for both short-lived features and longer-term trends to be evaluated. All AARP files are calibrated for instrument degradation, tracked, coaligned, and ready for, e.g., Differential Emission Measure analysis. DEM, Temperature, and Density maps are a forthcoming data product. Of note, all HARPs are included, without bias for active region size, activity level, or evolutionary stage. Further details are found in Dissauer et al 2022 (ApJ, submitted).

We have completed an analysis using the AARP database and the NWRA Classification Infrastructure to ask, “What are the Coronal and Chromospheric Properties of Flare-Imminent versus Flare-Quiet Active Regions” (Leka et al 2022, ApJ, submitted). Applying Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis to AARP-based parameters (also publicly available) that summarize the state of the upper atmosphere — parallel in intent to the SHARP active region parameters for the magnetic photosphere — on the 32,000+ samples and 4 different flare-based event definitions leads to skill scores and performance metrics on par with any similar published efforts thus far. The results can be interpreted in terms of (for example) enhanced levels of short-lived brightenings in flare-imminent active regions, and a high-temperature “memory” of flare activity.

This work was funded primarily from NASA/GI Grant 80NSSC19K0285 with some final support from NASA/GI Grant 80NSSC21K0738 and NSF/AGS-ST Grant 2154653.