Nowcasting and forecasting SEP events with the iPATH model

Authors: Junxiang Hu (UAH), Gang Li (UAH)

This work showcases the nowcasting and forecasting capabilities of the operational version of the iPATH (improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere) model. In this continuously running version of iPATH, the SEP simulations are triggered by CMEs or flares, where input parameters are automatically retrieved from online APIs. We will join the SHINE 2022 SEP modeling challenge and validate our model by simulating the listed NON-SEP events and SEP events with multiple spacecraft observations. We will compare the simulation results with observations including GOES proton flux measurement. In our validation effort, we will focus on exploring: 1) the false alarm rate for the all-clear prediction and 2) the maximum flux/threshold crossing time in response to the suprathermal seed population input.